Football Win Probability Calculator

Formula

The formula to calculate the Win Probability (WP) is:

\[ WP = \frac{TGS + (HFA \cdot H)}{TGS + OGS} \]

Where:

\( TGS \) is the team's average goals scored per game.
\( HFA \) is the home field advantage factor (usually between 0.1 and 0.3).
\( H \) is a binary variable indicating whether the team is playing at home (1 if yes, 0 if no).
\( OGS \) is the opponent's average goals scored per game.

Example

Let's say the team's average goals scored per game (\( TGS \)) is 2, the home field advantage factor (\( HFA \)) is 0.2, the team is playing at home (\( H \)) is 1, and the opponent's average goals scored per game (\( OGS \)) is 1.5. Using the formula:

\[ WP = \frac{2 + (0.2 \cdot 1)}{2 + 1.5} \]

We get:

\[ WP = \frac{2 + 0.2}{3.5} \approx 0.63 \]

So, the Win Probability (\( WP \)) is approximately 63%.

What is Football Win Probability?

Football Win Probability is a statistical metric that calculates the likelihood of a team winning a game at any given point during the match. It takes into account various factors such as the score difference, time remaining, field position, down and distance, and historical data. This metric is dynamic and changes throughout the game as these factors change. It provides a quantitative measure of a team’s chances of winning, helping fans and analysts understand the flow of the game better.